2023, lub tsheb vwm MCU

01 Kev loj hlob keeb kwm ntawm MCU

MCU, microcontroller, nws muaj lub npe nrov: ib leeg-chip microcomputer.

Nws yog qhov chaw qab zib tiag tiag yog txav cov txheej txheem ntawm lub khoos phis tawj yooj yim mus rau lub nti, suav nrog cov txheej txheem sab hauv ntawm CPU RAM ROM IO txee serial chaw nres nkoj, txawm hais tias qhov kev ua tau zoo yeej tsis dav li lub khoos phis tawj, tab sis nws muaj lub zog tsawg programmable thiab saj zawg zog, yog li nyob rau hauv cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob, kev sib txuas lus hauv kev kho mob Lub Tsheb muaj ntau yam kev siv.

Nws yug los hauv 1971, Intel tau tsim lub ntiaj teb thawj microprocessor - tus naj npawb 4004 4-ntsis nti, cov nti no sib txuas ntau dua 2,000 transistors, thiab Intel kuj tsim 4001, 4002, 4003 chips, RAM, ROM thiab sau npe.

Thaum plaub cov khoom lag luam no tau mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam, Intel tau sau hauv kev tshaj tawm "Tshaj tawm lub sijhawm tshiab ntawm kev sib koom ua ke: microcomputers condensed ntawm ib nti."Lub sijhawm ntawd, cov khoos phis tawj me me thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob feem ntau yog 8-ntsis thiab 16-ntsis processors, yog li Intel sai sai tau pib 8-ntsis microprocessor 8008 hauv xyoo 1972 kom yeej kev lag luam sai sai, qhib lub sijhawm ntawm ib leeg-chip microcomputers.

Nyob rau hauv 1976, Intel launched lub ntiaj teb no thawj programmable microcomputer maub los 8748, uas integrates 8-ntsis CPU, 8-ntsis parallel I/O, 8-ntsis txee, RAM, ROM, thiab lwm yam., uas muaj peev xwm ua tau raws li cov kev xav tau ntawm kev lag luam tswj thiab instrumentation, sawv cev los ntawm 8748, qhib kev tshawb nrhiav ntawm ib leeg-chip microcomputers hauv kev lag luam.

Nyob rau xyoo 1980, 8-ntsis ib-ntsis microcomputers pib ua kom paub tab, RAM thiab ROM muaj peev xwm nce, feem ntau nrog cov kev sib txuas sib txuas, ntau theem cuam tshuam kev ua haujlwm, ntau 16-ntsis suav, thiab lwm yam. Hauv xyoo 1983, Intel tau tsim MCS. -96 series ntawm 16-ntsis kev ua haujlwm siab microcontrollers, nrog 120,000 kev sib xyaw transistors.

Txij li thaum xyoo 1990, lub microcomputer ib leeg-chip tau nkag mus rau theem ntawm ib puas lub tsev kawm ntawv ntawm kev xav, hauv kev ua tau zoo, ceev, kev ntseeg siab, kev sib koom ua ke hauv kev tawg tag nrho, raws li tus naj npawb ntawm cov tsheb npav lossis cov ntaub ntawv sau npe, los ntawm thawj 4 khoom. maj mam tsim, nrog 8-ntsis, 16-ntsis, 32-ntsis thiab 64-ntsis ib-chip microcomputers.

Tam sim no, cov txheej txheem qhia ntawm MCUs feem ntau muab faib ua CISC thiab RISC, thiab cov txheej txheem tseem ceeb yog ARM Cortex, Intel 8051 thiab RISC-V.

Raws li 2020 Tuam Tshoj General Microcontroller (MCU) Kev Lag Luam Luv luv, 32-ntsis MCU cov khoom lag luam suav txog li 55% ntawm kev ua lag luam, ua raws li 8-ntsis khoom, suav txog 43%, 4-ntsis khoom suav txog 2%, 16 -ntsis cov khoom lag luam suav txog 1%, nws tuaj yeem pom tias cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb hauv kev ua lag luam yog 32-ntsis thiab 8-ntsis MCUs, thiab qhov chaw lag luam ntawm 16-ntsis MCU cov khoom tau raug nruj heev.

CISC cov lus qhia cov khoom lag luam suav txog 24% ntawm kev ua lag luam, RISC qhia cov khoom lag luam suav txog 76% ntawm cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb;Intel 8051 cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb suav txog 22% ntawm kev ua lag luam, ua raws li ARM Cortex-M0 cov khoom lag luam, suav txog 20%, ARM Cortex-M3 cov khoom lag luam suav txog 14%, ARM Cortex-M4 cov khoom lag luam suav txog 12%, ARM Cortex-M0+ cov khoom lag luam suav txog 5%, ARM Cortex-M23 cov khoom lag luam suav txog 1%, RISC-V cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb suav txog 1%, thiab lwm tus suav txog 24%.ARM Cortex-M0+ cov khoom lag luam suav txog 5%, ARM Cortex-M23 cov khoom lag luam suav txog 1%, RISC-V cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb suav txog 1%, thiab lwm tus suav txog 24%.Ntawm tag nrho, ARM Cortex series cores account rau 52% ntawm cov lag luam tseem ceeb.

MCU kev ua lag luam tau ntsib tus nqi poob qis hauv 20 xyoo dhau los, tab sis nws qhov nruab nrab muag tus nqi (ASP) poob qis tau qeeb hauv tsib xyoos dhau los.Tom qab muaj kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam tsheb, kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tsis muaj zog, thiab muaj kev kub ntxhov, MCU kev ua lag luam pib rov qab los rau xyoo 2020. Raws li IC Insights, MCU cov khoom xa tuaj tau nce 8% hauv 2020, thiab tag nrho MCU kev xa khoom hauv 2021 tau nce mus rau 12%, cov ntaub ntawv siab ntawm 30.9 billion, thaum ASPs kuj tau nce 10%, qhov nce siab tshaj plaws hauv 25 xyoo.

IC Insights cia siab tias MCU cov khoom xa tuaj mus txog 35.8 billion units hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej, nrog rau tag nrho cov muag khoom ntawm $ 27.2 billion.Ntawm cov no, 32-ntsis MCU kev muag khoom yuav tsum ncav cuag $ 20 nphom nrog kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm 9.4%, 16-ntsis MCUs xav tias yuav ncav cuag $ 4.7 billion, thiab 4-ntsis MCUs tsis xav kom pom kev loj hlob.

02 Tsheb MCU vwm dhau

Automotive electronics yog qhov kev thov loj tshaj plaws ntawm MCUs.IC Insights cia siab tias thoob ntiaj teb MCU kev muag khoom yuav loj hlob 10% rau cov ntaub ntawv $ 21.5 nphom hauv 2022, nrog rau tsheb MCUs loj hlob ntau dua li lwm qhov kawg kev lag luam.

Ntau tshaj 40% ntawm MCU kev muag khoom yog los ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv tsheb, thiab kev muag tsheb MCU xav tias yuav loj hlob ntawm CAGR ntawm 7.7% nyob rau tsib xyoos tom ntej, tshaj MCUs dav dav (7.3%).

Tam sim no, automotive MCUs feem ntau yog 8-ntsis, 16-ntsis thiab 32-ntsis, thiab cov khoom sib txawv ntawm MCUs ua haujlwm sib txawv.

Tshwj xeeb:

8-ntsis MCU feem ntau yog siv rau kev tswj cov haujlwm yooj yim, xws li kev tswj cov rooj zaum, cua txias, kiv cua, qhov rais, thiab qhov rooj tswj modules.

16-ntsis MCU feem ntau yog siv rau hauv lub cev qis, xws li lub cav, hluav taws xob nres, ncua kev kaw lus thiab lwm lub zog thiab kev sib kis.

32-ntsis MCU haum rau kev txawj ntse tsheb thiab feem ntau yog siv rau high-end ntse thiab muaj kev nyab xeeb daim ntawv thov scenarios xws li cockpit lom zem, ADAS, thiab lub cev tswj.

Nyob rau theem no, 8-ntsis MCUs tau loj hlob hauv kev ua tau zoo thiab lub peev xwm nco, thiab nrog rau lawv tus kheej cov nqi siv tau, lawv tuaj yeem hloov qee qhov 16-ntsis MCUs hauv cov ntawv thov thiab tseem rov qab sib xws nrog 4-ntsis MCUs.32-ntsis MCU yuav ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev tswj hwm lub luag haujlwm hauv tag nrho cov tsheb E / E architecture, uas tuaj yeem tswj hwm plaub qhov sib txawv qis-kawg thiab nruab nrab ECU units, thiab cov naj npawb ntawm kev siv yuav nce ntxiv.

Qhov xwm txheej saum toj no ua rau 16-ntsis MCU nyob rau hauv txoj haujlwm tsis txaus ntseeg, tsis siab tab sis qis, tab sis hauv qee qhov kev thov, nws tseem muaj txiaj ntsig zoo, xws li qee qhov kev siv tseem ceeb ntawm lub tshuab fais fab.

Automotive kev txawj ntse tau txhawb nqa qhov kev thov rau 32-ntsis MCUs, nrog ntau tshaj peb-plaub ntawm lub tsheb MCU muag los ntawm 32-ntsis MCUs hauv 2021, xav tias yuav ncav cuag li $ 5.83 billion;16-ntsis MCUs yuav tsim txog $ 1.34 billion hauv cov nyiaj tau los;thiab 8-ntsis MCUs yuav tsim txog $ 441 lab hauv cov nyiaj tau los, raws li McClean tsab ntawv ceeb toom.

Nyob rau hauv daim ntawv thov, infotainment yog daim ntawv thov scenario nrog lub siab tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv lub xyoo dhau los nce nyob rau hauv lub tsheb MCU muag, nrog rau 59% kev loj hlob nyob rau hauv 2021 piv rau 2020, thiab 20% cov nyiaj tau los loj hlob rau qhov seem scenarios.

Tam sim no tag nrho cov hluav taws xob tswj lub tsheb siv ECU (electronic control unit), thiab MCU yog lub hauv paus tswj nti ECU, txhua ECU muaj tsawg kawg yog ib tug MCU, yog li tam sim no theem ntawm kev hloov thiab kho dua tshiab ntawm ntse electrification prompted qhov kev thov. MCU ib leeg siv tsheb kom nce.

Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Tshawb Fawb ntawm Automotive Marketing Expert Committee ntawm Tuam Tshoj Kev Lag Luam Lub Tsev Haujlwm, tus naj npawb nruab nrab ntawm ECUs nqa los ntawm cov tsheb roj ib txwm yog 70;tus naj npawb ntawm ECUs nqa los ntawm cov khoom kim heev tsoos roj tsheb tuaj yeem ncav cuag 150 vim tias muaj kev ua tau zoo dua rau cov rooj zaum, kev tswj hwm hauv nruab nrab thiab kev lom zem, lub cev ruaj khov thiab kev nyab xeeb;thiab qhov nruab nrab ntawm ECUs nqa los ntawm cov tsheb ntse tuaj yeem ncav cuag 300 vim tias cov software tshiab thiab kho vajtse yuav tsum muaj rau kev tsav tsheb tsis muaj zog thiab pab tsav tsheb, uas sib haum rau MCU siv los ntawm ib lub tsheb kuj tseem yuav ncav cuag ntau dua 300.

Qhov kev thov muaj zog rau MCUs los ntawm automakers yog tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tshwm sim hauv 2021, thaum muaj qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov cores vim muaj kev sib kis.Xyoo ntawd, ntau lub tuam txhab tsheb yuav tsum tau kaw luv luv qee cov kab ntau lawm vim tsis muaj cov cores, tab sis kev muag khoom ntawm tsheb MCUs nce 23% mus rau $ 7.6 billion, cov ntaub ntawv siab.

Feem ntau ntawm cov automotive chips yog tsim los siv 8-nti wafers, qee lub tuam txhab xws li TI mus rau 12-nti kab hloov, IDM kuj tseem yuav yog ib feem ntawm lub peev xwm outsourcing foundry, uas yog dominated los ntawm MCU, txog 70% ntawm lub peev xwm los ntawm TSMC. .Txawm li cas los xij, kev lag luam tsheb nws tus kheej suav rau ib feem me me ntawm TSMC, thiab TSMC tsom mus rau cov txheej txheem thev naus laus zis thev naus laus zis ntawm cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob, yog li kev lag luam tsheb MCU tshwj xeeb yog tsawg.

Qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov tsheb tsav tsheb coj los ntawm tag nrho cov semiconductor kev lag luam kuj tau tshwm sim hauv nthwv dej ntawm kev nthuav dav, cov chaw tsim khoom loj thiab IDM cov nroj tsuag kom nquag nthuav dav ntau lawm, tab sis lub hom phiaj sib txawv.

TSMC Kumamoto cog yuav tsum tau muab tso rau hauv qhov kawg ntawm 2024, ntxiv rau cov txheej txheem 22/28nm, nws yuav ntxiv cov txheej txheem 12 thiab 16nm, thiab Nanjing cog yuav nthuav dav ntau lawm rau 28nm, nrog lub peev xwm tsim tawm txhua hli. 40,000 pcs;

SMIC npaj yuav nthuav dav ntau lawm los ntawm tsawg kawg yog 45,000 8-nti wafers thiab tsawg kawg yog 10,000 12-nti wafers hauv xyoo 2021, thiab tsim kom muaj 12-nti cov kab ntau lawm nrog lub peev xwm txhua hli ntawm 120,000 wafers hauv Lingang, tsom rau 28nm thiab saum toj no nodes.

Huahong cia siab tias yuav ua kom nrawm ntawm kev nthuav dav ntawm 12-nti muaj peev xwm rau 94,500 daim hauv 2022;

Renesas tshaj tawm nws cov ceg txheem ntseeg nyob rau hauv TSMC's Kumamoto cog nrog lub hom phiaj ntawm kev nthuav tawm cov khoom lag luam, thiab lub hom phiaj txhawm rau nce tsheb MCU cov khoom siv los ntawm 50% los ntawm 2023, nrog lub peev xwm siab kawg MCU xav tias yuav nce 50% thiab qis kawg MCU muaj peev xwm li ntawm 70%. piv rau qhov kawg ntawm 2021.

STMicroelectronics yuav nqis peev $ 1.4 nphom hauv 2022 rau kev nthuav dav, thiab npaj kom muaj peev xwm ua ob npaug ntawm nws cov nroj tsuag nyob sab Europe los ntawm 2025, feem ntau yuav nce 12-nti muaj peev xwm, thiab rau 8-nti muaj peev xwm, STMicroelectronics yuav xaiv kev hloov kho rau cov khoom uas tsis tas yuav 12- inch technology.

Texas Instruments yuav ntxiv plaub cov nroj tsuag tshiab, thawj cov nroj tsuag yuav tsum tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm hauv xyoo 2025, thiab cov nroj tsuag thib peb thiab plaub yuav tsim los ntawm 2026 thiab 2030;

ON Semiconductor tau nce nws cov peev peev mus rau 12%, feem ntau yog rau 12-nti wafer muaj peev xwm nthuav dav.

IC insights muaj cov ntaub ntawv nthuav dav uas ASP ntawm tag nrho 32-ntsis MCUs poob qis ntawm CAGR ntawm -4.4% xyoo-rau-xyoo nruab nrab ntawm 2015 thiab 2020, tab sis nce li 13% txog $ 0.72 hauv 2021. Reflected hauv khw muag khoom. , tus nqi hloov pauv ntawm automotive MCU yog qhov pom tseeb dua: NXP 32-ntsis MCU FS32K144HAT0MLH nrog tus nqi sawv ntawm $ 22 nce mus txog $ 550, ntau dua 20 lub sijhawm, uas yog ib qho ntawm cov khoom siv tsheb tsis tshua muaj nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawd.

Infineon 32-ntsis automotive MCU SAK-TC277TP-64F200N DC tau nce mus rau 4,500 yuan, nce ze li 100 zaug, tib lub koob ntawm SAK-TC275T-64F200N DC kuj tau nce mus rau ntau dua 2,000 yuan.

Ntawm qhov tod tes, cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob kub thaum xub thawj pib txias, qhov kev thov tsis muaj zog, nrog rau kev ua kom nrawm ntawm kev hloov pauv hauv tsev, ua rau lub hom phiaj dav dav, cov neeg siv khoom MCU nqi rov qab, qee cov qauv ST nti xws li F0 / F1 / F3. cov nqi sib tw tau los ze rau tus nqi ib txwm, thiab txawm tias cov lus xaiv hauv khw uas tus nqi ntawm qee tus MCU tau poob los ntawm lub koom haum tus nqi.

Txawm li cas los xij, automotive MCUs xws li Renesas, NXP, Infineon, thiab ST tseem nyob hauv lub xeev tsis txaus.Piv txwv li, tus nqi ntawm ST's high-performance 32-ntsis MCU STM32H743VIT6 nce mus rau 600 yuan thaum kawg ntawm xyoo tas los, thaum nws tus nqi tsuas yog 48 yuan ob xyoos dhau los.Qhov nce ntau tshaj 10 npaug;Infineon Automotive MCU SAK-TC237LP-32F200N AC tus nqi lag luam nyob rau lub Kaum Hli xyoo tas los ntawm txog $ 1200, Lub Kaum Ob Hlis muab txog $ 3800, thiab txawm tias nyob rau hauv cov vev xaib thib peb muaj ntau dua $ 5000.

03 Kev ua lag luam loj, thiab kev tsim khoom hauv tsev yog me me

MCU kev sib tw toj roob hauv pes yog raws li kev tswj hwm los ntawm cov neeg loj heev txawv teb chaws raws li tag nrho cov kev sib tw semiconductor.Hauv 2021, tsib tus neeg muag khoom MCU saum toj kawg nkaus yog NXP, Microchip, Renesas, ST, thiab Infineon.Tsib tus neeg muag khoom MCU no suav txog 82.1% ntawm tag nrho cov kev muag khoom thoob ntiaj teb, piv rau 72.2% hauv xyoo 2016, nrog rau qhov loj ntawm cov tuam txhab xov xwm loj hlob hauv cov xyoo cuam tshuam.

Piv nrog rau cov neeg siv khoom thiab kev lag luam MCU, automotive MCU daim ntawv pov thawj pib yog siab thiab lub sij hawm ntawv pov thawj ntev, cov ntawv pov thawj muaj xws li ISO26262 tus qauv ntawv pov thawj, AEC-Q001 ~ 004 thiab IATF16949 tus qauv ntawv pov thawj, AEC-Q100/Q102, ISO 2 certification. automotive functional kev nyab xeeb yog muab faib ua plaub theem ntawm ASIL-A rau D. Piv txwv li, lub chassis thiab lwm yam scenarios muaj kev ruaj ntseg siab tshaj plaws thiab yuav tsum tau ASIL-D qib ntawv pov thawj, ob peb nti manufacturers ua tau raws li cov kev cai.

Raws li Strategy Analysis cov ntaub ntawv, lub ntiaj teb no thiab domestic automotive MCU kev ua lag luam feem ntau yog nyob los ntawm NXP, Renesas, Infineon, Texas Instruments, Microchip, nrog ib tug ua lag luam feem ntawm 85%.Txawm hais tias 32-ntsis MCUs tseem muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm cov neeg loj heev txawv teb chaws, qee lub tuam txhab hauv tsev tau tawm mus.

04 Xaus

Txoj kev loj hlob sai ntawm cov tsheb hluav taws xob ntse, yog li ntau tus neeg siv khoom siv chips tau koom nrog, xws li Nvidia, Qualcomm, Intel tau nyob hauv lub tshuab ua haujlwm ntse, kev tsav tsheb tsis muaj zog nti, compressing qhov chaw ciaj sia taus ntawm cov qub tsheb chip manufacturers.Kev tsim kho tsheb MCUs tau dhau los ntawm kev tsom mus rau kev txhim kho tus kheej thiab kev txhim kho kev ua tau zoo rau txhua qhov kev sib tw rau kev txo nqi thaum tswj kev siv technology zoo.

Nrog lub tsheb E / E architecture los ntawm kev faib mus rau kev tswj hwm, thiab thaum kawg ntawm kev sib koom ua ke hauv nruab nrab, yuav muaj ntau dua thiab ntau dua kev ua haujlwm thiab yooj yim qis-kawg nti yuav raug hloov, kev ua haujlwm siab, kev siv hluav taws xob siab thiab lwm yam high-end. chips yuav dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev sib tw tsheb tsav tsheb yav tom ntej, vim tias lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb ntawm MCU los ntawm kev txo tus lej ECU yav tom ntej yog me me, xws li Tesla chassis tswj ECU, ib leeg muaj 3-4 MCU, tab sis qee qhov kev ua haujlwm yooj yim ntawm MCU hauv paus yuav raug muab tso ua ke.Zuag qhia tag nrho, kev ua lag luam rau tsheb MCUs thiab qhov chaw rau kev hloov pauv hauv tsev nyob rau xyoo tom ntej yog qhov loj heev.