Chip nqi raug txo, chips tsis muag.Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022, vim tias qhov kev xav tau qeeb hauv covcov khoom siv hluav taws xobkev ua lag luam, kev lag luam nti ib zaug ua rau tus nqi txo qis, thiab nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, cov phiaj xwm rov ua nws tus kheej.
Tsis ntev los no, CCTV xov xwm tau tshaj tawm tias yog lub hauv paus tseem ceeb ntawm kev tswj hwm hluav taws xob,STMicroelectronicschips yog ib qho ntawm cov khoom siv chips feem ntau nrhiav hauv xyoo 2021, thiab kev lag luam hais lus ib zaug tau nce mus txog 3,500 yuan, tab sis xyoo 2022, tib lub nti poob los ntawm qhov siab mus txog 600 yuan, poob mus txog 80%.
Coincidentally, tus nqi ntawm lwm nti xyoo tas los yog kaum lub sij hawm txawv ntawm lub xyoo no.Chip cov nqi piv rau nqaij npuas, nce thiab nqis, tus nqi siab tshaj thiab yav dhau los tus nqi ib txwm sib txawv yog exaggerated, nws tau tshaj tawm tias cov xov xwm tshaj tawm 600 yuan ntawm STMicroelectronics chips, tus nqi ib txwm nyob rau hauv 2020 tsuas yog ob peb kaum ntawm yuan.
Lub nti craze zoo li tau dhau mus, yog huab tsaus ntuj uas npog tag nrho lub voj voog thev naus laus zis xyoo tas los txog kev nqa?Raws li Bloomberg, feem coob ntawm cov tuam txhab nti ntseeg tias qhov kev lag luam kub no yuav muaj qhov hloov pauv loj rau lub sijhawm ntev tom ntej, thiab txawm tias qee tus neeg xav tsis thoob tias kev lag luam semiconductor yuav ua rau poob qis tshaj plaws hauv ib xyoo caum.
Ob peb txoj kev xyiv fab, ob peb txoj kev tu siab, nti nqi avalanche, ntxiv rau kev lag luam ntsiag to, kuv ntshai tias muaj kev lag luam suav tsis txheeb nyob rau hauv lub carnival.
01Lub nti poob mus, tab sis tsis tag?
Lub avalanche ntawm nti nqi yog sib cais los ntawm lub ntiaj teb no sluggish electronics noj.
Los ntawm TSMC daim ntawv tshaj tawm nyiaj txiag tshiab, nws tuaj yeem pom tau tias kev lag luam smartphone, uas ib zaug txhawb nqa ib nrab ntawm lub tebchaws, tsis yog qhov loj tshaj ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, thiab nws xav tias qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm kev lag luam no tseem yuav poob qis.Raws li CINNO Kev Tshawb Fawb, Tuam Tshoj lub xov tooj smartphone SoC lub davhlau ya nyob twg xa khoom hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022 yog kwv yees li 134 lab, nqis txog 16.9% xyoo-rau-xyoo.
Raws li rau PC sab, raws li kev lag luam tshawb fawb lub tuam txhab Mercury Research, nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob ntawm lub xyoo no, desktop computer processors xa khoom poob mus rau theem qis tshaj nyob rau hauv ze li ntawm 30 xyoo, tag nrho cov processor xa mus ntsib qhov loj tshaj plaws xyoo-rau-xyoo poob txij li thaum 1984. , South Kauslim kev muag khoom smartphone poob 29.2% xyoo-rau-xyoo nyob rau lub Xya Hli, lub computer thiab cov khoom siv pabcuam xa tawm poob 21.9%, thiab kev xa khoom nco nti ua rau poob nrog 13.5% poob.
Cov kev xav tau qis qis qis, qis qis qis txuas ntxiv txiav, thiab tus nqi qis qis.
Txawm li cas los xij, nws yuav tsum raug sau tseg tias cov chips uas tau txo tus nqi tsis ua lub luag haujlwm hauv kev nthuav dav tag nrho cov kev lag luam semiconductor.Puas muaj chips tiag tiag poob rau hauv nqe?Raws li cov xov xwm ntawm "plummeting", tseem muaj cov tuam txhab uas tau tshaj tawm tus nqi nce tawm tsam tus qauv, xws li Intel, Qualcomm, Meiman Electronics, Broadcom, thiab lwm yam. npaj yuav nce tus nqi ntawm qee yam ntawm lawv cov khoom nti.
Siv Intel ua piv txwv, raws li Nikkei, Intel tau qhia cov neeg siv khoom tias nws yuav nce tus nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam semiconductor nyob rau ib nrab xyoo 2022, thiab xav tias yuav nce tus nqi ntawm ntau yam khoom xws li core servers thiab computer CPU. processors thiab peripheral chips, thiab qhov nce nws txawv nyob ntawm seb hom nti, qhov qis tshaj plaws hauv ib tus lej, thiab qhov siab tshaj plaws yuav nce mus txog 10% mus rau 20%.
Tus nqi ntawm chips puas tau nce?Nws tuaj yeem hais tias tus nqi ntawm cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob chips tau poob tam sim ntawd vim qhov kev thov poob qis, tab sis qhov kev thov rau MCUs hauv lwm daim ntawv thov kev lag luam tseem muaj zog, xws li tsheb thiab kev tswj hwm kev lag luam, uas tau ua rau tus nqi siab. muaj feem cuam tshuam.Txij li thaum pib ntawm kev xa xov tooj ntawm tes tsis zoo, lub neej yav tom ntej ntawm kev lag luam nti tau nthuav qhia tias yog muag qeeb, tab sis qhov tseeb, cov nti tsis txaus hauv qee qhov kev lag luam tseem tsis tau xaus.
Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog automotive chips, 2022 Tuam Tshoj Nansha International Integrated Circuit Industry Forum cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias tam sim no cov khoom nti tuaj yeem ua tau raws li qhov nruab nrab ntawm 31% ntawm cov kev xav tau ntawm cov tuam txhab tsheb, Xpeng Motors 'He Xiaopeng kuj tau hais tias kev lag luam automotive nti tsis dhau. , GAC nyob rau lub Rau Hli tau muab cov ntaub ntawv hais tias GAC tau ntsib lub nti tsis txaus txog li 33,000 daim hauv lub quarter thib ob.
Kev lag luam hluav taws xob tshiab tau mus zoo, thiab qhov kev thov rau chips yav tom ntej tsis tuaj yeem kwv yees.Nws tau tshaj tawm tias lub tsheb nruab nrab yuav tsum siv 500 chips,tsheb tshiab zogtau nruab nrog ntau daim chips, xyoo tas los thoob ntiaj teb lub tsheb muag ntawm li 81.05 lab units, uas yog, tag nrho cov tsheb lag luam saw xav tau 40.5 billion chips.
Tsis tas li ntawd, high-end chips tseem muaj siab nyob rau hauv lub lag luam thaj chaw, ntawm ib sab, cov kev lag luam upstream saw rau chips nrog advanced txheej txheem technology yeej tsis ploj mus.Nws tau tshaj tawm yav dhau los tias TSMC's 3nm nti yuav ua tiav ntau lawm hauv lub Cuaj Hli, thiab Apple yuav yog thawj tus neeg siv khoom siv TSMC's 3nm nti.
Nws tau tshaj tawm tias Apple yuav suav nrog A17 processor tshiab rau xyoo tom ntej, nrog rau M3 series processor, uas yuav siv TSMC's 3 nanometers.Ntawm qhov tod tes, muaj qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor, thiab cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm 3nm thiab 2nm cov txheej txheem siab heev tsis yog lub hom phiaj siab, thiab tej zaum yuav muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm 10% mus rau 20% hauv 2024 ~ 2025.
Qhov ntawd ua rau nws tsis tshua muaj nqi uas cov nqi yuav poob.Txhua qhov kev qhia qhia peb tias chips poob thiab kev lag luam nyob deb ntawm qhov yooj yim li nws zoo li.
02 Puas yog cov neeg siv khoom siv chips tsis txaus siab?
Ib sab nyob ntsiag to, ib sab tsis vam meej.
Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob tau dhau los ntawm lub sijhawm muaj koob meej tshaj plaws ntawm thawj ob xyoos, thiab nrog kev poob qis ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob, lawv thaum kawg tau nqis los ntawm lub thaj.Tam sim no, ntau lub tuam txhab nti tau pib tsis khoom hloov pauv lawv txoj kev lag luam, los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom mus rau tsheb thiab engineering.TSMC tau teev cov kev lag luam tsheb yog qhov tseem ceeb hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no, thiab nws tau tshaj tawm tias nyob rau sab av loj, kev lag luam tsheb ntawm cov neeg ua si hauv MCU xws li GigaDevice Innovation, Zhongying Electronics, thiab AMEC kuj tau dhau los ua pom tseeb dua. .
Tshwj xeeb, GigaDevice tau nkag mus rau cov neeg siv khoom qauv kuaj theem nrog nws thawj lub tsheb-qib MCU cov khoom lag luam hauv lub Peb Hlis, thiab xav tias yuav ua tiav ntau lawm xyoo no;Zhongying Electronics feem ntau yog siv rau lub cev tswj MCU ib feem, thiab nws yuav tsum rov qab los nyob rau hauv nruab nrab ntawm lub xyoo;AMEC Semiconductor tau qhia nws qhov kev txiav txim siab los tsim cov tsheb chips hauv nws daim ntawv tshaj tawm, thiab nws cov phiaj xwm IPO yuav nce 729 lab yuan, ntawm 283 lab yuan yuav siv rau kev tshawb fawb thiab kev tsim kho tsheb hauv tsheb.
Tom qab tag nrho, lub localization tus nqi ntawm domestic automotive xam thiab tswj chips yog tsawg dua 1%, lub localization tus nqi ntawm sensors yog tsawg tshaj li 4%, thiab lub localization tus nqi ntawm lub hwj chim semiconductors, nco, thiab kev sib txuas lus yog 8%, 8%, thiab 3%, feem.Kev tsim hluav taws xob tshiab hauv tsev tsim hluav taws xob tau ua phem, thiab tag nrho cov kev txawj ntse ecology suav nrog kev tsav tsheb tsis muaj zog yuav siv ntau lub tshuab hluav taws xob nyob rau theem tom ntej.
Thiab nws yuav nyuaj npaum li cas los txuas ntxiv nrog cov neeg siv khoom chips?
Nws tau tshaj tawm yav dhau los hais tias Samsung ib zaug tau ncua kev yuav khoom ntawm txhua lub lag luam, suav nrog cov vaj huam sib luag, cov xov tooj ntawm tes thiab lub cim xeeb chips, thiab txawm tias ntau lub tuam txhab Korean nco yuav tau pib los txo cov nqi ntau dua 5% hauv kev pauv rau kev muag khoom.Nuvoton Technology, uas tshwj xeeb hauv cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob, kuj pom nws cov txiaj ntsig tau nce ntau dua 5.5 npaug ntawm xyoo tas los, nrog cov nyiaj tau los ntawm NT $ 7.27 ib feem.Qhov kev ua tau zoo tau dhau los ua lub Plaub Hlis thiab Tsib Hlis xyoo no, nrog cov nyiaj tau los poob los ntawm 2.18% thiab 3.04% raws li lub hli.
Ib qho yuav tsis piav qhia dab tsi, tab sis Cua cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias txij li lub Tsib Hlis 9, 126 lub tuam txhab semiconductor thoob ntiaj teb tau tshaj tawm lawv cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag rau thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022, ntawm 16 tau ntsib ib xyoo dhau ib xyoo poob hauv cov nyiaj tau los lossis txawm poob.Cov neeg siv khoom siv tau nrawm nrawm lawv qhov kev poob siab, thiab tsheb thiab kev tswj hwm kev lag luam tau dhau los ua qhov txiaj ntsig nrhiav txiaj ntsig tom ntej hauv kev lag luam chip.
Tab sis nws puas yooj yim npaum li nws zoo li?
Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau qee cov tuam txhab tsim hluav taws xob hauv tsev, txav los ntawm thaj chaw ntawm cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob mus rau hauv tsheb ua lag luam yog ntau dua li kev lag luam kub.Ua ntej tshaj plaws, cov chips hauv tsev yuav tsum muaj qis qis, thiab cov neeg siv khoom lag luam yog thawj, suav txog 27%.Txawm hais tias koj saib hauv lub ntiaj teb, kev lag luam hauv tsev kuj yog lub lag luam loj tshaj plaws semiconductor, cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias xyoo 2021, Suav teb loj lag luam semiconductor muag tau txog 29.62 billion US dollars, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 58%, yog lub ntiaj teb. loj tshaj plaws semiconductor lag luam, accounting rau 28.9% ntawm lub ntiaj teb no tag nrho cov semiconductor muag.
Qhov thib ob, kev lag luam nti nws tus kheej muaj cov txiaj ntsig loj dua hauv cov xov tooj ntse thiab 5G-hais txog kev lag luam.Piv txwv li, TSMC cov khoom xa tuaj rau 70% ntawm lub tsheb MCU kev ua lag luam, tab sis cov khoom siv tsheb tsuas yog 3.31% ntawm nws cov nyiaj tau los xyoo 2020.Los ntawm Q1 2022, TSMC cov xov tooj smartphone thiab HPC ntu yuav suav txog 40% thiab 41% ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, thaum IOT tsheb DCE thiab lwm tus tsuas yog suav txog 8%, 5%, 3% thiab 3% feem.
Qhov kev thov tsawg dua, tab sis cov txiaj ntsig tseem nyob ntawd, thiab qhov teeb meem yog qhov mob taub hau loj tshaj plaws hauv kev lag luam semiconductor.
03 Tom qab lub boom, cov neeg siv khoom reveled?
Thaum tus nqi ntawm cov chips yog shaken, qhov zoo siab tshaj plaws yog cov neeg siv khoom, cov xov tooj ntawm tes, tsheb thiab txawm tias cov khoom siv hauv tsev ntse tau dhau los ua qhov chaw noj khoom noj khoom haus uas nquag xav tau tom qab tus nqi ntawm cov chips raug txo, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov xov tooj ntawm tes.Tsis ntev tom qab lub nti nqi avalanche, muaj cov neeg qw ntawm kev sib raug zoo platforms yuav cov xov tooj ntawm tes nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo no.
Tam sim ntawd tom qab, tus nqi ntawm lub zog tshiab raug txo, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob raug txo, thiab cov khoom siv hauv tsev raug txo… Cov suab zoo li no tuaj thiab mus.Txawm li cas los xij, tsis muaj qhov sib txawv meej meej rau lub sijhawm no seb puas yuav muaj tus nqi txo qis ntawm cov khoom lag luam, tab sis hais ncaj ncaj, qhov yoj ntawm nti tus nqi txo qis yuav tsis ua rau txo tus nqi loj hauv cov neeg siv khoom lag luam.
Ua ntej saib ntawm lub xov tooj ntawm tes muaj zog tshaj plaws, nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, cov tuam txhab xov tooj ntawm tes tau nce nqi tas li, qis qis qis, siab kawg swagger, qhov ua tau ntawm tus nqi txo rau ib ntus yog tsawg heev.Tsis tas li ntawd, cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho ntawm cov tuam txhab xov tooj hauv tsev tsis tau siab.Ntawm Huawei Developers Conference, Yang Haisong, tus lwm thawj ntawm Huawei tus neeg siv khoom lag luam software Department, tau hais tias cov txiaj ntsig ntawm Suav cov tuam txhab xov tooj ntawm tes yog qhov tsis txaus siab, thiab cov xov tooj ntawm tes hauv tsev lag luam feem ntau tshaj li ib nrab, tab sis cov txiaj ntsig tsuas yog kwv yees li 10. %.
Tsis tas li ntawd, cov nti yog qhov tseeb, tab sis tus nqi ntawm lwm cov khoom siv tsis zoo, xws li cov sensors thiab cov ntxaij vab tshaus, cov qauv high-end tau dhau los ua cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb, cov tuam txhab xov tooj ntawm tes ntawm cov khoom siv yuav tsum tau muaj ntau dua thiab nruj dua, nws tau tshaj tawm tias OPPO, Xiaomi ib zaug kho tshwj xeeb sensors rau Sony thiab Samsung.
Ua li no, nws yog ib qho koob hmoov rau cov neeg siv khoom uas tus nqi ntawm cov xov tooj ntawm tes tsis nce.
Saib ntawm lub zog tshiab, lub ntsiab nti nti uas txiav tus nqi lub sij hawm no yog Ameslikas tsis nyob rau hauv lub tshav pob ntawm lub tsheb manufacturing, tsis hais, tus nqi nce nyob rau hauv lub tshiab lub zog tsheb lub voj voog nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog tsis txawm, thiab lub vim li cas tom qab nws tsis yog tag nrho cov teeb meem chip.Tus nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv ntau yog nce, txawm tias nws yog npib tsib xee, hlau, txhuas nrog rau qhov zoo thiab tsis zoo electrodes, tus nqi tsuas yog nce, cov nqi ntawm cov roj teeb tseem siab, thiab ntau yam pom tseeb tsis tuaj yeem raug ntaus nqi rau cov nti xwb.
Tau kawg, lub tsheb ua lub voj voog tsis yog me ntsis nti rov qab tsis tuaj yeem pom, txij li xyoo no, LED lub teeb-emitting chips thiab tsav tsheb chips muaj 30% -40% tus nqi poob, uas yuav tsis muaj qhov tsis txaus ntseeg ua lub luag haujlwm tsis nyob hauv lub tom qab tus nqi ntawm tus tswv tsheb.
Ntxiv rau cov xov tooj ntse, qhov cuam tshuam loj tshaj plaws ntawm cov neeg siv khoom siv chips yog tej zaum cov khoom siv hauv tsev ntse xws li cua txias thiab tub yees, thiab qhov kev thov rau MCUs ntawm peb cov khoom siv dawb hauv tsev yog qhov tseeb tsis tsawg, los ntawm 570 lab hauv 2017 txog ntau dua 700. lab hauv 2022, ntawm cov cua txias MCUs suav nrog ntau dua 60%.
Txawm li cas los xij, cov chips siv hauv lub tsev ntse yog qee qhov qis kawg chips nrog cov txheej txheem rov qab, uas yog diametrically tawm tsam cov txheej txheem siab xws li 3nm thiab 7nm, feem ntau siab dua 28nm lossis 45nm.Koj paub, cov chips no tau siv dav vim lawv cov ntsiab lus tsis zoo, thiab cov nqi tsev tsis siab.
Rau cov tuam txhab khoom siv hauv tsev, thev naus laus zis tsawg txhais tau tias lawv tuaj yeem ua tiav tus kheej txaus.Xyoo 2017, Gree's microelectronics faib tau tsim;Nyob rau hauv 2018, Konka tshaj tawm lub official tsim ntawm thev naus laus zis faib ntawm semiconductors;Nyob rau hauv 2018, Midea tshaj tawm nws nkag mus rau hauv nti manufacturing thiab tsim Meiren Semiconductor Co., Ltd., thiab nyob rau hauv Lub ib hlis ntuj 2021, Meiken Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. tau tsim, nrog rau ib xyoos ib zaug loj hlob scale ntawm txog 10 lab MCU chips.
Raws li kev txheeb cais tsis tiav, ntau lub tuam txhab khoom siv hauv tsev xws li TCL, Konka, Skyworth, thiab Haier tau tso tawm cov khoom lag luam semiconductor, hauv lwm lo lus, daim teb no tsis txwv los ntawm chips txhua.
Down, los tsis down?Qhov kev txo nqi nti no ntau dua li kev txhaj tshuaj cuav, cov neeg tsim khoom siv hluav taws xob tsis zoo siab ib ntus, cia nyob ib leeg cov neeg siv khoom.
Post lub sij hawm: Dec-29-2022